Every few years a corner of the market gets tagged with the bubble label. Dot-com. Crypto. Housing.
Lately, the whisper has spread into ETA: search must be in a bubble. The story sounds simple enough: too many search funds, too much capital, not enough good businesses to buy.
But simple stories usually skip the details that matter.
Look closer and the foundation still holds. There are millions of small businesses in the U.S. The median owner keeps aging upward. A wave of retirements continues to build, not shrink. Transitions will happen whether the ETA community labels it a bubble or not.
So the core opportunity hasn't disappeared. What has changed is the competitive landscape around it.
Why Talent, Not Capital, Dictates Outcomes
Capital does not limit this market. In fact, it has become more available. Institutional investors, family offices, and even smaller independent backers line up for well-run searches. Dry powder sits on the sidelines waiting for the right operator.
The real bottleneck lies in talent.
Search has always turned on the operator's ability to win trust and then prove capable of running a business. Spreadsheets help raise funds, but trust moves owners. Discipline, judgment, and stamina determine whether investors back you and whether a company thrives after acquisition.
That's why the conversation around bubbles misses the point. The question isn't whether capital outpaces deals. The question is whether talent rises to meet the scale of opportunity.
The White-Collar Backdrop
The broader labor market tells you why the operator pool feels bigger. White-collar employment has softened. Layoffs at big tech, hiring freezes across consulting and finance, and the pressure of automation push skilled professionals to look for alternatives. Some of them find search.
This creates volume. More pitch decks. More search funds. More competition. At first glance, it looks unsustainable. But volume alone doesn't define a bubble. Volume just sharpens the filter.
Investors, faced with more choices, can back only the clearest, sharpest operators. Owners, confronted with more buyers, can demand conviction and cultural fit. The field sorts itself faster.
What Separates Signal From Noise
So how does a searcher stand out?
- Narrative clarity. Owners want to hear why you, specifically, make sense as a successor. Generic stewardship language no longer convinces.
- Process discipline. Investors want to see sourcing systems and evidence of repeatability, not just ambition.
- Operational judgment. When problems hit, a résumé doesn't help. What matters is how you choose, adapt, and keep a company moving forward.
The ones who master those elements attract attention. The rest get filtered out.
Not a Bubble, A Filter
Search right now doesn't resemble a balloon waiting to burst. It looks more like a sieve, where more people enter, more noise fills the space, and the system works harder to sort signal from static.
That sorting creates healthier outcomes, not weaker ones. Operators with clarity and discipline rise. Those without fade. Capital flows toward talent. Owners sell to buyers they trust.
The foundation remains intact and the opportunity remains enormous. What has changed is the intensity of the filter.
At DealBuff, we see less of a bubble and more of a concentration around skill, discipline, and story. Search rewards operators who treat this as a long game, not a passing trend.
If you prove you belong in the CEO chair, the crowd doesn't hurt you - it makes you shine brighter.
