In 1996, it was "too technical." In 2006, "instant messaging is faster." By 2007, "social networks make it obsolete." Then came "Slack will replace email" in 2014, followed by "peak email" in 2018, "spam will ruin email" in 2020, and most recently, "AI assistants will kill email" in 2023.
Meanwhile, email users grew from zero in 1996 to 4.6 billion today. The predictions were loud but the data told a different story.
The current version of this argument goes: the inbox is too crowded, spam filters are too aggressive, AI killed trust, business owners stopped reading unsolicited messages. The reasons change but the conclusion stays the same - email itself is the problem.
That's wrong too. Cold email didn't stop working. Business owners just got better at filtering out the noise, and most senders haven't caught up.
What Actually Changed
Cold email used to work because it was rare. Then it worked because it was efficient - you could reach a lot of people quickly, say something reasonably relevant, and get enough replies to justify the effort.
That success taught senders the wrong lesson. They optimized for volume, speed, and repetition instead of judgment. More messages, faster follow-ups, tighter sequences. The system rewarded motion over restraint.
Business owners adapted. They learned to scan emails in seconds, assess intent instantly, and delete anything that didn't feel grounded in their reality. That shift happened gradually, but it fundamentally changed how cold email gets received.
The Inbox Is Still Open
If cold email were actually dead, deliverability would have collapsed. It hasn't.
According to Validity's 2025 Email Deliverability Benchmark Report, inbox placement rates remain strong across industries people claim are "impossible to reach":
Emails are still landing. But owners have gotten far more selective about what they engage with once they arrive.
The New Filter Is Judgment, Not Technology
Deliverability determines where your email goes. Owners decide if it deserves attention. When a business owner opens a cold email today, they're not evaluating how clever or persuasive it is.
They're asking: Does this person understand my business? Do they respect how decisions actually get made here? Are they going to pressure me?
Tone, pacing, and restraint answer those questions way faster than personalization tokens or urgency language ever could. This is where most cold email fails, because it signals misunderstanding too early.
Why Volume Stopped Working
For years, sending more emails covered up weak judgment. Enough would slip through to make the math work.
That doesn't hold anymore. More emails don't compensate for bad timing. Faster follow-ups don't build trust. And automation hasn't become neutral background noise - it's become easy to spot, and once spotted, easy to ignore.
Different industries adapted at different speeds depending on how often their attention got abused. In some spaces, unsolicited contact is still fine when done thoughtfully. In others, owners learned to protect themselves by default.
How We Think About It at DealBuff
We don't treat cold email as a way to start conversations. We treat it as a way to earn permission to continue one.
The first message establishes posture. It tells an owner whether you understand their world, respect their time, and are willing to move patiently instead of forcing momentum. That posture matters more than clever copy or aggressive sequencing.
This is also why we don't treat silence as failure. Silence is information. It usually signals timing, not rejection. Responding to it with restraint instead of pressure keeps the door open in ways volume never could.
What Works Now
Cold email used to be a door knock. Now it's more like leaving a note on the porch. It doesn't demand attention or assume readiness. It signals awareness, clarity, and patience, then lets the owner decide when (or if) engagement makes sense.
The Real Point
Cold email isn't dead. What died is the idea that you can shortcut trust with scale.
The inbox is still open, but it expects you to act like you understand why you're there.
The senders who succeed aren't louder or faster. They're more deliberate, more patient, and way more attuned to the reality on the other side of the screen.
